Global and Indian Oil Prices: An Analysis of Major Trends, Causes and Linkages (1986-2016)

Tarun Madaan and Kalpana Singh

The energy sector is one of the important sectors for various countries of the world especially, the developing countries. It has been observed that the energy sector has played a crucial role in the context of the global economy. Crude oil and petroleum products are widely traded all over the world. In terms of value, a large amount of world trade relates to energy products (oil, gas, coal and petroleum products), chemicals, machinery, communications equipment and motor vehicles. Changes in prices of oil and other sources of energy have been affecting the economies of various developing nations and have been playing crucial roles in shaping them. The present study mainly focuses on fluctuation in global and Indian crude oil prices during the period 1986-2016.The study has used both the yearly as well as monthly data and fluctuations have been analysed dividing the whole study period into six phases with five years intervals. The study also examines if there is any linkage between global and Indian crude oil prices and also analyses the major causes of wide fluctuation in Global and Indian crude oil prices during various phases. The finding of the study using yearly data suggests that fluctuation in global oil prices were more in years 1990, 1998, 2009, 2011and in2016. Similar pattern has been observed in case of oil prices in India. Phase wise analysis indicated the greatest variability in both global and Indian crude oil prices during Phase-1V when the values of coefficient of variation were highest,36.3 and 37.1% respectively. Further the study found high correlation between global and Indian crude oil prices during all phases.

Volume 12 | Issue 3

Pages: 226-232

DOI: 10.5373/JARDCS/V12I3/20201186