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Forecasting the Gross Domestic Product of the Philippines: An Artificial Neural Network Approach


Jackie D. Urrutia,Jonvert S. Cruz,Kristel Joy D. Filamor
Abstract

This study expects to observe the conduct of the Gross Domestic Product of the Philippines from first quarter of 1998 to third quarter of 2018, to decide the best-fitted model among the 3 neural systems: Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network, Time-Delay Neural Network and Distributed Time-Delay Neural Network, and to figure Gross Domestic Product from fourth quarter of 2018 to third quarter of 2023. The information on Gross Domestic Product from the first quarter of 1998 to the third quarter of 2018 of the Philippines utilized as the info was acquired at the Philippine Statistics Authority. The specialists say that the genuine GDP is step by step expanding in since a long time ago run conduct, where the pinnacle is in the fourth quarter of 2017. The analysts reasoned that the Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network (NARNET) has a minimal mistake in mean supreme rate blunder, mean a total mistake, mean square mistake, and standardized square blunder, and accordingly, NARNET is the best-fitted model in anticipating GDP. In view of the outcome, the GDP with anticipated qualities is expanding since quite a while ago run conduct and its pinnacle is presently in the fourth quarter of 2022 with GDP equivalent to 6,046,884.86 PHP.

Volume 12 | 06-Special Issue

Pages: 354-368

DOI: 10.5373/JARDCS/V12SP6/SP20201041