About One Cointegration Issue Of Trade Relations Azerbaijan , Russia , Belarus


An econometric analysis of the dependence of natural loqarifm of Azerbaijan’s GDP from the balance of trade of the Russian Federation and thebalance oftradeof Belarus and taking into account the natural logarithm of absolute cost of residualswas conducted according to the 25 year’s statisticalindicators. Relevant statistical methods were applied to check the model’s identification and thesignificance for each parameter and determine the adequacy.The issue of stationary of the time series in the work was checked through the Dickey-Fuller Test and the stationary of the new time series formed from the second-range difference operators of these time series were determined. And then, the mutual cause-result dependencies between these time series were studied through the Granger Test, the cointegration vectors of these dependencies were determined by applying the Johansen Test, the error correction model was built by studying the error correction mechanisms for the operators built from the differences of the time series , and it was demonstrated that the assessments achieved through these models were adequate to the actual databy building cointegration models to get long-term relations ensuring the return of shortterm tendencies from the balance position to that position.

Volume 12 | Issue 6

Pages: 1385-1394

DOI: 10.5373/JARDCS/V12I2/S20201335