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Forecasting Investment Demand of Ukrainian Agrarian Enterprises


O. Nepochatenko Olena, Y. Yermakov Oleksandr, M. Novak Inna, V. Kuzina Ruslana and P. Reznik Nadiia
Abstract

The article presents the analysis of the changes in the methodological apparatus related to the theories of aggregate demand influence on the economic growth of an enterprise, a branch or a country. It has been pointed out that the most Ukrainian studies defined the factors of the formation of investment demand of a country, but not the agrarian branch or a business entity. At the same time, Ukrainian agrarian producers are experiencing a considerable unsatisfied investment demand, caused by the reduction of government financing, unfavorable tax and destructive investment policies, that led to the reduction of investment. The main part of investment earnings into the branch is provided at the cost of the capital of agrarian enterprises. Therefore, there is a need to research factors, that influence the formation of investment demand in Ukrainian agrarian enterprises and to forecast its scale in perspective. In accordance with the objectives set in the article were used the following methods of research: analysis, synthesis, scientific abstraction (with a refinement of the categorical-conceptual apparatus of the study); economic and mathematical modeling (in the development of investment scenarios of the resource potential of agrarian producers); configurations, correlation, regression and discriminate analysis (to determined the demand for investment capital in agrarian enterprises). The scientific novelty of the conducted research lies in the substantiation of methodological tools for the forecasting the scope of investment demand in the enterprises of the agrarian sphere in the economy of Ukraine. To the factors that influence the investment demand (depreciation of fixed assets) in the agrarian sphere we refer: financing innovation activity; the volume of crediting agrarian enterprises; credits issued by deposit corporations to residents; expenditures on one household on average per month; consumer price index. Practical value of the research lies in the possibility to forecast the volumes of investment demand of agrarian enterprises of Ukraine by formalizing the dependence of their investment demand on the most relevant factors, formed on the basis of correlation and regression analysis.

Volume 12 | 07-Special Issue

Pages: 359-369

DOI: 10.5373/JARDCS/V12SP7/20202117